Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 1.366291 1.449872 1.537190 1.635448 1.743219 1.858142 1.990370
2026-01-18 1.238089 1.355586 1.484194 1.636308 1.812481 2.011544 2.255554
2026-01-25 1.171371 1.311044 1.469084 1.662947 1.896865 2.173340 2.529973
2026-02-01 1.090359 1.239708 1.412794 1.630890 1.902290 2.234387 2.680444
2026-02-08 1.017733 1.171519 1.353161 1.587027 1.885480 2.261386 2.783988
2026-02-15 0.970434 1.129881 1.321555 1.573398 1.902617 2.329067 2.942543
2026-02-22 0.936894 1.102494 1.304882 1.575976 1.938668 2.421561 3.140367
2026-03-01 0.895095 1.062257 1.269273 1.550921 1.934948 2.458046 3.259543
2026-03-08 0.849851 1.015406 1.222617 1.508108 1.903455 2.452239 3.313787
2026-03-15 0.820913 0.988015 1.199581 1.495115 1.911430 2.501624 3.454075
2026-03-22 0.808989 0.981894 1.203742 1.518669 1.971359 2.629528 3.727991
2026-03-29 0.790670 0.966457 1.194546 1.522793 2.002892 2.716429 3.943369
2026-04-05 0.777396 0.957873 1.195058 1.541810 2.059315 2.848641 4.255458
2026-04-12 0.758020 0.940375 1.182655 1.541685 2.087007 2.938006 4.504526
2026-04-19 0.748370 0.935520 1.187244 1.566057 2.153159 3.094123 4.894133
2026-04-26 0.721794 0.906440 1.156641 1.536695 2.133044 3.104764 5.009287
2026-05-03 0.693359 0.873885 1.119940 1.496481 2.093195 3.078572 5.048591
2026-05-10 0.675258 0.855123 1.102175 1.483977 2.097057 3.127797 5.245039
2026-05-17 0.662747 0.843741 1.094498 1.486343 2.125038 3.221206 5.545158
2026-05-24 0.643383 0.822085 1.071146 1.463346 2.109351 3.234329 5.674106
2026-05-31 0.620198 0.794401 1.038164 1.424016 2.064086 3.189853 5.669845
2026-06-07 0.605984 0.779151 1.022979 1.412072 2.064753 3.230894 5.865043
2026-06-14 0.601889 0.778255 1.028892 1.433722 2.124293 3.388030 6.355840